Updated on Thursday 14 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 85172 (+1804) 1429773 (+21700) 308165 (+12388) 1036436 (+7508)
United Kingdom 33186 (+494) 229705 (+3242) 0 (+0) 196519 (+2748)
Italy 31106 (+195) 222104 (+888) 112541 (+3502) 78457 (-2809)
Spain 27104 (+184) 271095 (+1575) 183227 (+2757) 60764 (-1366)
France 27074 (+83) 178060 (-165) 58673 (+888) 92313 (-1136)
Brazil 13158 (+754) 189157 (+11555) 78424 (+5827) 97575 (+4974)
Belgium 8843 (+82) 53981 (+202) 13937 (+205) 31201 (-85)
Germany 7861 (+123) 174098 (+927) 148700 (+1500) 17537 (-696)
Iran 6783 (+50) 112725 (+1958) 89428 (+1071) 16514 (+837)
Netherlands 5562 (+52) 43211 (+227) 0 (+0) 37649 (+175)
Canada 5302 (+133) 72278 (+1121) 35164 (+1122) 31812 (-134)
China 4633 (+0) 82926 (+7) 78189 (+18) 104 (-11)
Turkey 3952 (+58) 143114 (+1639) 101715 (+2826) 37447 (-1245)
Mexico 3926 (+353) 38324 (+1997) 25935 (+2835) 8463 (-1191)
Sweden 3460 (+147) 27909 (+637) 4971 (+0) 19478 (+490)
India 2551 (+136) 78055 (+3763) 26400 (+1980) 49104 (+1647)
Ecuador 2334 (+7) 30486 (+67) 3433 (+0) 24719 (+60)
Russia 2212 (+96) 242271 (+10028) 48003 (+4491) 192056 (+5441)
Peru 2169 (+112) 76306 (+4247) 24324 (+1000) 49813 (+3135)
Switzerland 1870 (+3) 30413 (+33) 27100 (+300) 1443 (-270)
Ireland 1497 (+9) 23401 (+159) 19470 (+2360) 2434 (-2210)
Portugal 1175 (+12) 28132 (+219) 3182 (+169) 23775 (+38)
Romania 1036 (+34) 16002 (+224) 7961 (+276) 7005 (-86)
Indonesia 1028 (+21) 15438 (+689) 3287 (+224) 11123 (+444)
Poland 861 (+22) 17204 (+283) 6410 (+279) 9933 (-18)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 293078 (+5344) 4341901 (+87995) 1576405 (+58649)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 283421 ( +2022) 4160688 ( +38292) 1545543 ( +33810)
Fri 15 May 2020 285272 ( +1851) 4196434 ( +35746) 1577853 ( +32310)
Sat 16 May 2020 286964 ( +1692) 4229759 ( +33325) 1608643 ( +30790)
Sun 17 May 2020 288509 ( +1545) 4260787 ( +31029) 1637908 ( +29265)
Mon 18 May 2020 289919 ( +1410) 4289644 ( +28857) 1665652 ( +27744)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82926 (+7) 78189 (+18)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82962 ( +3) 77187 ( +0)
Fri 15 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82965 ( +3) 77187 ( +0)
Sat 16 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82967 ( +2) 77188 ( +0)
Sun 17 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82969 ( +2) 77188 ( +0)
Mon 18 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82971 ( +2) 77188 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 27104 (+184) 271095 (+1575) 183227 (+2757)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 26889 ( +77) 256480 ( +468) 180706 ( +1087)
Fri 15 May 2020 26958 ( +69) 256900 ( +420) 181608 ( +903)
Sat 16 May 2020 27019 ( +62) 257277 ( +377) 182355 ( +747)
Sun 17 May 2020 27074 ( +55) 257615 ( +338) 182972 ( +617)
Mon 18 May 2020 27123 ( +49) 257919 ( +304) 183480 ( +508)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 31106 (+195) 222104 (+888) 112541 (+3502)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 30924 ( +104) 221073 ( +551) 112287 ( +2179)
Fri 15 May 2020 31019 ( +95) 221574 ( +501) 114387 ( +2101)
Sat 16 May 2020 31105 ( +86) 222028 ( +454) 116408 ( +2021)
Sun 17 May 2020 31182 ( +78) 222439 ( +411) 118348 ( +1940)
Mon 18 May 2020 31253 ( +70) 222812 ( +373) 120207 ( +1859)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 33186 (+494) 229705 (+3242) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 32567 ( +100) 222403 ( +1845) nan ( +nan)
Fri 15 May 2020 32646 ( +79) 224097 ( +1694) nan ( +nan)
Sat 16 May 2020 32708 ( +62) 225650 ( +1553) nan ( +nan)
Sun 17 May 2020 32756 ( +48) 227072 ( +1422) nan ( +nan)
Mon 18 May 2020 32793 ( +38) 228372 ( +1300) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 85172 (+1804) 1429773 (+21700) 308165 (+12388)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 84742 ( +1004) 1433442 ( +15226) 312093 ( +14146)
Fri 15 May 2020 85687 ( +945) 1447412 ( +13970) 326630 ( +14538)
Sat 16 May 2020 86576 ( +889) 1460190 ( +12778) 341558 ( +14928)
Sun 17 May 2020 87411 ( +835) 1471846 ( +11656) 356874 ( +15316)
Mon 18 May 2020 88195 ( +784) 1482450 ( +10604) 372574 ( +15701)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 27074 (+83) 178060 (-165) 58673 (+888)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 26842 ( +80) 180658 ( +1088) 57875 ( +320)
Fri 15 May 2020 26913 ( +71) 181768 ( +1110) 58162 ( +287)
Sat 16 May 2020 26976 ( +63) 182900 ( +1132) 58420 ( +258)
Sun 17 May 2020 27032 ( +56) 184054 ( +1154) 58651 ( +231)
Mon 18 May 2020 27082 ( +50) 185229 ( +1175) 58857 ( +206)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 7861 (+123) 174098 (+927) 148700 (+1500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 7682 ( +28) 169971 ( +97) 148711 ( +1110)
Fri 15 May 2020 7707 ( +25) 170056 ( +84) 149748 ( +1037)
Sat 16 May 2020 7730 ( +22) 170129 ( +73) 150716 ( +968)
Sun 17 May 2020 7750 ( +20) 170193 ( +64) 151619 ( +903)
Mon 18 May 2020 7768 ( +18) 170249 ( +56) 152461 ( +842)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 5562 (+52) 43211 (+227) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 5383 ( +16) 42746 ( +93) nan ( +nan)
Fri 15 May 2020 5397 ( +14) 42829 ( +83) nan ( +nan)
Sat 16 May 2020 5409 ( +12) 42902 ( +73) nan ( +nan)
Sun 17 May 2020 5420 ( +11) 42967 ( +65) nan ( +nan)
Mon 18 May 2020 5430 ( +10) 43025 ( +58) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 8843 (+82) 53981 (+202) 13937 (+205)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 8897 ( +58) 52638 ( +119) 13725 ( +78)
Fri 15 May 2020 8949 ( +52) 52744 ( +106) 13796 ( +71)
Sat 16 May 2020 8996 ( +47) 52839 ( +94) 13861 ( +65)
Sun 17 May 2020 9039 ( +43) 52923 ( +84) 13920 ( +59)
Mon 18 May 2020 9077 ( +38) 52997 ( +75) 13974 ( +54)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 3460 (+147) 27909 (+637) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 3414 ( +45) 28082 ( +452) 5345 ( +39)
Fri 15 May 2020 3456 ( +42) 28523 ( +441) 5372 ( +27)
Sat 16 May 2020 3497 ( +40) 28954 ( +430) 5391 ( +18)
Sun 17 May 2020 3534 ( +38) 29373 ( +419) 5403 ( +12)
Mon 18 May 2020 3570 ( +36) 29782 ( +409) 5411 ( +8)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 861 (+22) 17204 (+283) 6410 (+279)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 856 ( +12) 17208 ( +258) 6420 ( +169)
Fri 15 May 2020 867 ( +11) 17453 ( +245) 6576 ( +155)
Sat 16 May 2020 878 ( +11) 17685 ( +232) 6718 ( +142)
Sun 17 May 2020 888 ( +10) 17903 ( +219) 6848 ( +130)
Mon 18 May 2020 897 ( +9) 18109 ( +205) 6966 ( +118)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 1870 (+3) 30413 (+33) 27100 (+300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 1857 ( +4) 30138 ( +13) 26864 ( +91)
Fri 15 May 2020 1860 ( +3) 30149 ( +11) 26944 ( +80)
Sat 16 May 2020 1863 ( +3) 30159 ( +10) 27014 ( +70)
Sun 17 May 2020 1865 ( +2) 30167 ( +8) 27075 ( +61)
Mon 18 May 2020 1867 ( +2) 30175 ( +7) 27129 ( +53)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 13158 (+754) 189157 (+11555) 78424 (+5827)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 13716 ( +655) 197344 ( +8917) 73959 ( +2092)
Fri 15 May 2020 14365 ( +648) 206099 ( +8756) 75927 ( +1968)
Sat 16 May 2020 15001 ( +637) 214639 ( +8540) 77769 ( +1842)
Sun 17 May 2020 15622 ( +621) 222914 ( +8275) 79486 ( +1717)
Mon 18 May 2020 16223 ( +601) 230883 ( +7969) 81080 ( +1594)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 13 May 2020 6783 (+50) 112725 (+1958) 89428 (+1071)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 14 May 2020 6730 ( +28) 104095 ( +251) 86205 ( +346)
Fri 15 May 2020 6756 ( +26) 104324 ( +230) 86518 ( +313)
Sat 16 May 2020 6780 ( +24) 104535 ( +210) 86802 ( +284)
Sun 17 May 2020 6802 ( +22) 104727 ( +192) 87058 ( +256)
Mon 18 May 2020 6823 ( +20) 104903 ( +176) 87290 ( +231)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.